Coach Jon Scheyer reviews How serious are Duke’s issues, and how they can fixed it:

With the return of three starters — two of them projected future lottery picks — and the addition of the nation’s No. 2 recruiting class, Duke entered the 2023-24 season with national championship expectations, slotting in at No. 2 in the preseason AP poll.

One month into the season, however, the Blue Devils are nearly out of the rankings (No. 22) after back-to-back road losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech. They’re just 5-3 overall, 0-1 in the ACC and No. 41 in the NCAA’s NET rankings.

Coach Jon Scheyer acknowledged after Saturday’s loss to the Yellow Jackets that adjustments were coming.

“As a coaching staff, there are some things we have to look at and probably make some changes,” he said.

But what, exactly, are the issues Duke is facing, and how might they be fixed in the short and long term? We talked to opposing coaches to find out.

Tyrese Proctor’s delayed breakout and injury

Perhaps the biggest key to Duke living up to its preseason expectations was Proctor playing like a lottery pick. A five-star prospect from Australia, he averaged just 9.4 points as a freshman last season but was most productive down the stretch, putting up 11.2 points and 4.2 assists in his final nine games and shooting nearly 40% from the 3-point line. The 6-foot-5 guard entered this season as one of the best NBA draft prospects in college basketball.

Proctor hasn’t quite taken the expected next step, though, at least on a consistent basis. He had eight points on 3-for-9 shooting against Arizona and seven points on 3-for-12 shooting against Arkansas. But he did finish with 13 points and six assists against Michigan State and had 21 assists to just three turnovers during Duke’s four-game winning streak between its losses to Arizona and Arkansas.

“I think it’s really hard for him to go by his guy and create an advantage, and really hard for him to get to the rim,” one opposing coach said.

“Those are two things that elite point guards at the college level have, the guys that make a difference. The elite point guards on the best teams in the last 10-20 years, it’s hard to remember one that wasn’t a shot creator that doesn’t get to the rim and isn’t very physical.”

“He’s a good secondary ball-handler,” another coach added. “In theory, he’s a better shooter than what he’s proven to be right now. Part of the struggles shooting is that so much is required of him. He’s not a natural point guard. When that happens, they try to overcompensate and create for other people.”

Unfortunately for Duke, Proctor went down in the opening minutes of the Blue Devils’ loss to Georgia Tech with an injury and didn’t come back into the game. Scheyer announced on his radio show Wednesday that it’s a sprained ankle, but there’s no specific timetable for a return.

“He’s just working every day to be back as soon as possible,” he said. “He’s not there yet, but he’s working like crazy to be back with the team.”

If he’s out for any extended amount of time, how will that impact Duke? Perhaps the most noticeable issue will be perimeter depth. After Proctor went down, freshman Caleb Foster came in off the bench and played 36 minutes while senior Jeremy Roach played all 40 minutes.

“Between Proctor, Roach, [Jared] McCain and Foster, they had four guards that could play those three spots,” one coach said. “Now all of a sudden, there’s a big drop-off [when you go to the bench].”

Two coaches who faced Duke, however, think Foster brings something different to the table that could hugely benefit the Blue Devils offensively.

“Foster is a more confident shooter,” one coach said. “He was regarded as a high-, high-level shot-maker in high school. He showed in the game against Georgia Tech a propensity to attack the rim more than Proctor did. In terms of elite athletes who create space, Foster might fit that category better than the other guards. Foster can become that guy.”

A second coach added, “With his strength — he’s 15 pounds heavier than Proctor — he can get to his spots easier. He’s probably their one guard, between Proctor, him, Roach and McCain, that likes to get all the way to the rim. The other three would prefer a midrange or a floater.”

Mark Mitchell’s shooting woes

Arizona provided a template for defending Duke in its second game of the season, essentially allowing the sophomore forward to move freely on the perimeter and guarding the other four Duke players. Arkansas did the same, to an even more exaggerated extent than Arizona. Georgia Tech utilized some of the same strategies, too.

It has worked every time because Mitchell hasn’t made teams pay yet, making just one of his 13 3-point attempts so far this season. While he was never known as a knockdown shooter coming out of high school, he was at least able to keep defenses honest as a freshman, shooting 35.2% from 3-point range and 40.7% (granted, on low volume) in ACC play. He’s an elite offensive rebounder and gets to the free throw line, but until he keeps defenses honest, opposing teams will continue to back off and use their resources elsewhere on more efficient players.

“All those teams beat them, essentially doing the same thing,” one coach said. “When you have a guy who isn’t a great shooter, the offense becomes more stagnant. And in terms of having people struggling to get to the rim and attack the rim, that’s magnified by having a 4-man that isn’t a shooter. Spacing only works if you’re afraid of people. That Cam Reddish-Zion Williamson-RJ Barrett team didn’t have shooters, but they were still getting to the rim.”

“I think the way those teams guarded them is sustainable,” another coach said. “Whether it’s Ryan Young, Sean Stewart or Mark Mitchell, they’re always going to have a non-shooter on the floor with those guards and [Kyle] Filipowski.”

Scheyer has made an adjustment the past two games, though, putting freshman forward TJ Power in for stretches off the bench. Power barely played over the first six games of the season, with three DNPs and spot minutes in the three others, but did see 13 minutes against Arkansas and 16 minutes against Georgia Tech. Across the two games, he hit three 3s and scored nine points.

He was a high-level shooter coming out of high school and is already showing signs of being someone who can stretch the defense at the college level.

“If teams are going to back off of Mitchell, you can’t just throw Stewart into the game,” one coach said. “An X-factor is Power. He’s a guy they didn’t think they’d have to rely on much, but he adds some shooting. Give him some credit, he didn’t look like a deer in headlights against Arkansas or Georgia Tech.”

“He’s the one guy at the 3 or 4 spot that can play those minutes if teams start backing off,” a coach added. “He can earn more minutes to help with spacing.”

Kyle Filipowski a bright spot, offensively

One returnee who has made strides from last season is the 7-foot sophomore who has played like the projected first-round pick he was in the preseason. He’s averaging 18.9 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists and had two of his best games against Arizona and Arkansas, putting up 25 and 8 against the Wildcats and 26 and 10 against the Razorbacks.

“From an offensive standpoint, he’s an All-American,” an opposing coach said. “Filipowski is a really, really hard cover because he can do a little bit of everything. He can step out and make enough 3s to keep you honest, he’s a willing and good passer in the mid-post and low post. He does a really good job, whatever block he catches on, getting to his spots. You cut off baseline, he can go back middle, he can go baseline on either side.”

“Transition is the opportunity for the guards to score. In the halfcourt, everything runs through Filipowski,” one coach said. “Lot of mid-post ISO, low-post ISO, five-out pindown dribble handoff, two-man game. And it all kind of revolves around Filipowski.”

At the other end of the floor, however, there have been some struggles. Filipowski’s defensive ability was the primary concern for NBA scouts entering the season, especially after he underwent surgery on both hips during the offseason.

“He just doesn’t move that well laterally,” one coach said. “Middle pick-and-rolls, you want to involve him in as many actions as possible. And he’s not gonna foul because he wants to stay in the game. Ryan Young is a much better defender but obviously not nearly as skilled, and it’s hard to play those two guys together.”

It’s not a problem unique to Duke, of course. Given that so many of the nation’s best players this season (and last season) are big men, there are multiple teams struggling with similar issues. And one coach pointed out the Blue Devils had problems in this area last season too, before Dereck Lively really emerged during the second half of the campaign.

“Filipowski has elite qualities. His scoring is so important to them playing inside-out,” a coach said. “Last year it took them some time and they found it with Lively. They’re missing a guy like Lively. Sometimes you have it, sometimes you don’t have it, and so you have to be creative.”

Trajectory going forward

It’s too early to write off Duke. The Blue Devils were tied or ahead in the final two minutes of their losses to Arizona and Georgia Tech, so a couple of bounces the other direction and we’re talking about a 7-1 team. But much of their expectations moving forward will depend on Proctor’s injury. If he ends up missing more than just a couple of weeks, they’re going to take a hit.

Duke will have had a full week off between the loss to Georgia Tech and Saturday’s home game against Charlotte, which precedes another home game, against Hofstra. There’s a game against Baylor at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 20, then another winnable home game against Queens before ACC play begins. So in terms of having time to make adjustments, having just four games between Dec. 2 and Jan. 2 is a good thing.