Former American League Cy Young winner Shane Bieber is a year from reaching the open market, and the Guardians have discussed potential trade scenarios involving the 28-year-old righty with the Cubs and Reds, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Other clubs have surely reached out on Bieber’s potential availability as well, and Morosi notes that the Cubs have also inquired on Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, who’s widely known to be available. Cincinnati was also linked to Glasnow on Monday.
Bieber’s 2023 season was arguably his worst since his 2018 rookie season, though that’s a testament to his overall track record more than an indictment on his ’23 output. Forearm and elbow troubles limited him to 128 innings this past season, but he pitched to a solid 3.80 ERA when healthy and averaged better than six frames per start.
That said, it’s worth highlighting that Bieber’s status as a former Cy Young winner probably gives him more name recognition and name value among fans than actual trade value among MLB front offices. Solid as his ’23 results were when he was on the active roster, his performance carried plenty of red flags. Bieber’s fastball velocity has steadily declined since that 2020 Cy Young win, and last year’s average of 91.6 mph was nearly three miles per hour slower than during his 2020 peak. Bieber fanned a ridiculous 41.1% of opponents during the pandemic shortened season, but that mark dropped to 33.1% the following year, 25% in 2022 and a below-average 20.1% in 2023.
While still high, Bieber’s ground ball and walk rates aren’t particularly outstanding. He recorded absurd swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates of 17.1% and 37% in 2020, respectively, but finished below the league average in each of those categories last year (10.5% and 30.6%). Hard contact allowed has never seen Bieber at the top of the scale, but in the past, he has missed so many bats that it didn’t really matter if he yielded hard contact at mediocre rates. With no strikeouts, that is no longer the case. Last year, Bieber recorded career-worst numbers for hard-hit rate (47.2%) and average exit velocity (91.6 mph). The markings are just as harsh as they seem. Bieber’s hard-hit rate was in the third percentile and his average exit velocity was in the second percentile among MLB pitchers.
Be that as it may, Bieber’s broader track record surely buys him some faith from other clubs, and it’s of course possible that some of those red flags are attributable to health troubles that are now hopefully behind him. It’s a deep free-agent class for pitching, but not every club is going to fill its needs via the open market. Bieber still holds clear trade value, even if teams likely all agree that the 2020 version of the one-time ace probably isn’t going to resurface.
For both the Reds and the Cubs, there’s good sense in pursuing Bieber. Cincinnati boasts an exciting crop of young position players and several talented but yet-unproven rotation candidates. Bieber would give them a veteran anchor to pair with the likes of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson. Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Cubs have an established top three in the rotation (Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon) but less certainty beyond that veteran trio, with Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks among their still-emerging options.
Both clubs would be interested in adding a reliable veteran like Bieber to help stabilize matters as they aim to take advantage of a weak NL Central. In contrast to the Cubs, who already have a projected payroll of more than $178 million, the Reds, in particular, should have no trouble covering Bieber in his final year of club control. Cincinnati will likely spend no more than $50 million by 2024. The only guaranteed contracts on the books are for Greene and backup catcher Luke Maile, and their arbitration class is rather small.
In the grand scheme of things, fans who have followed Cleveland’s operations over the years should not be surprised by the trade of Bieber, or at least the talk of one. The Guardians produce elite starting pitchers more frequently than any other baseball team, yet they never allow their best players to become free agents. A significant factor in Cleveland’s continuous success, despite their consistently low payrolls, has been their willingness to accept high prices for seasoned starters in return for manageable young talent. The team has maintained its competitiveness in a weak AL Central division thanks to its unparalleled record in pitching development and those frequent infusions of youthful talent.
For instance, none of Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, or Corey Kluber were able to reach the open market while wearing a Cleveland uniform. In exchange for current Rangers closer Emmanuel Clase, Kluber was traded to them. Along with Francisco Lindor, Carrasco was traded to the Mets for Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario. Bauer arrived in Cleveland with Franmil Reyes and a rental Yasiel Puig. Josh Naylor, infielder Gabriel Arias, pitching prospect Joey Cantillo, and righty Cal Quantrill—who was just moved (to the Rockies) after a disappointing season—were among the players that Clevinger acquired.
The Guardians have never been able to hold onto a pitcher long enough to make a qualifying offer and obtain a compensatory draft pick, even with all the elite pitchers who emerge in Cleveland. If Bieber stays put, he would be a QO possibility next winter, but his experience, age, and expected arbitration pay of $12.2 million (according to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) should be enough to provide more value than a possible comp choice in the 2025 MLB draft.
Even with all the elite pitchers that emerge in Cleveland, the Guardians have never been able to hold onto a pitcher long enough to make a qualifying offer and earn a compensatory draft pick. If Bieber stays in Cleveland, he could be a QO next winter, but his age, experience, and projected arbitration pay of $12.2 million (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) should be enough to provide more value than a potential comp choice in the 2025 MLB draft.
There’s a strong possibility that these patterns may continue in 2024. Even if Bieber is dealt, Cleveland already graduated three excellent prospects who were all successful in their rookie campaigns: Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams. Despite a concerning elbow ailment, Triston McKenzie was able to complete the season in good condition. He has the potential to be an elite starter himself if he can steer clear of more problems (191 innings, 2.96 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate in 2022). Cantillo, Xzavion Curry, and Hunter Gaddis are just a few of the team names that might compete for the fifth position in the rotation. It’s also quite likely that Cleveland could acquire a rotation candidate to join that group through a Bieber deal or another winter trade.
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