I occasionally like to read Redleg Nation’s comments section for inspiration. Particularly when someone states, “The Cincinnati Reds need to accomplish x, y, or z!” Though I always question if it’s realistic or even feasible, I usually believe it would be lovely if the Reds performed whatever it is.
Since the bench has come up occasionally in this conversation, I thought it would be helpful to examine what a club should anticipate needing in terms of bench players and what they should anticipate producing from those players.
The discrepancy in this case is expected production. It’s not the finest, but I like to use wRC+.
In any case, 461 MLB players saw at least 100 plate appearances in the previous season. Out of those players, 208 were mediocre or superior (100 wRC+ or above). That works out to seven batters per team on average. There are 212 total players, 145 (about five per team) of whom were average or better with the bat, if we increase the required amount of plate appearances to 400 (something akin to an everyday player who was mainly healthy).
Of course, teams with more players who can hit tend to be more successful. However, we also need to recognise that not every batter will be above average. Although it ought to be obvious, many people find this to be confusing. Additionally, individuals who don’t play every day don’t do so for a reason. Heck, even the mighty Atlanta Braves doled out nearly 200 plate appearances to Kevin Pillar, who is just not good anymore.
Thus, it takes place. Because that’s how baseball operates, the best teams will rotate in less than stellar players. Teams simply don’t have 13+ above average hitters to run out there, barring extraordinary circumstances. Now that we have all of this information, let me discuss what the Reds depth chart would look like and who they might need. Since only nine players can play every day, assuming good health, which nine Reds are most likely to see the most plate appearances? In order from most to least evident, these are my guesses:
- Tyler Stephenson
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Spencer Steer
- Elly De La Cruz
- Jeimer Candelario
- Jake Fraley
- Will Benson
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand.
That’s my estimation, and that’s all it is. Noelvi Marte might end up being preferred above Fraley, Benson, or Encarnacion-Strand (I’m assuming that one of the two outfielders will DH a lot as is). However, based on my best assessment, Marte now starts as a depth player in Louisville (yes, I am aware of the draft pick controversy; however, it appears improbable that De La Cruz or Encarnacion-Strand will be selected). The operative term here is depth. Since starting the season with your 13 best position players on the roster is hardly the ideal scenario. Ideally, you have one or two guys who could be legitimate and who need to play in Triple-A on a daily basis. After all, injuries do happen.
Recall that the aforementioned statistics indicate that approximately 15% of players on an average squad will make 100 plate appearances. What will that look like to the Reds?
The first nine are already on the list. Marte, who is probably playing for the Reds every day when someone gets a hangnail, will be added. As long as India remains on the roster (which he mysteriously is), he is most likely ranked eleventh on the depth chart. The backup catcher is Luke Maile. That makes twelve.
If MLB’s 2018 season serves as a gauge, the 12th man should anticipate 200–240 plate appearances. Maile might rank thirteenth in terms of hitting. Although he must be on the roster, he is not likely to score in a match where
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