Here’s a look at the odds leading up to the Week 4 primetime showdown
The Week 5 Sunday schedule concludes in Santa Clara with a primetime matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers. This has the makings of a potential NFC Championship preview, and these two storied organizations have plenty of recent postseason experience, with San Francisco knocking the Cowboys out in each of the last two seasons. Dallas enters this game 3-1 after a blowout win over the Patriots, but the Niners are 4-0 and have scored at least 30 points in each of their games thus far, so we should be in for a battle.
We’ll look at this game from a gambling standpoint in this section. We’ll take a look at the line movement leading up to Thursday, the total, and a few player props. Before we go any further, let’s make sure you know how to watch this prime-time showdown.
Line motion
This line has shifted slightly, but it has remained at least a field-goal game. The line opened at 49ers -3.5 and has since volleyed around that half-point to 49ers -3 and even 49ers -4 in certain spots.
The selection is 49ers -3.5. Both of these teams have been great bets in the first month of the season, but I’m going to take the home team even if we have to give up the field goal plus the hook. San Francisco appears to be a tier above the rest of the league at the moment, with a strong defense and an attack that has yet to score less than 30 points per game. Dallas, on the other hand, may be in a tight place and may suffer a letdown after annihilating the Patriots in Week 4. I also feel Christian McCaffrey will maintain his MVP form against a Cowboys rush defense that is inadvertently giving away yards.
This season, he averaged 4.6 yards per run, ranking 26th in the NFL.
I’m quite sure in my decision, but if you want another view, Sports line’s Micah Roberts is on an 18-5 run in his previous 23 San Francisco picks. We can tell you he’s leaning Over the total, but he also understands that a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a MUST-BACK! You MUST see what it is before making any decisions of your own. I’d definitely check them out by clicking here.
45 (over/under)
There has been no significant line change in the total.
Under 45 is the selection. Yes, San Francisco has been allergic to going under 30 points this season, but this is a game between two of the NFL’s best defenses and two-star rushing backs. I expect this to be a close match, with defense being the primary story. Last year, these two teams combined for 31 points in their divisional playoff game. They combined for 40 points in the Wild Card game during the 2021 season.
Dak Prescott props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +108, Under -148)
Passing yards: 240.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 34.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
Passing completions: 23.5 (Over +110, Under -151)
Longest passing completion: 34.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -142, Under +104)
Rushing yards: 12.5 (Over -119, Under -115)
You’re obviously laying the juice, but experience has proven that Prescott is capable of throwing an interception in this matchup. Prescott has thrown three interceptions in his last two games against the 49ers. With that in mind, we’ll take the Over on that prop as well as the Under on his passing touchdown prop. Prescott has only had one multi-touchdown performance in four games. Meanwhile, the 49ers have only scored one throwing touchdown per game all season.
Brock Purdy props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
Passing yards: 243.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 30.5 (Over -129, Under -106)
Passing completions: 20.5 (Over -133, Under -103)
Longest passing completion: 37.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Interceptions: 0.5 (+123, Under -169)
Rushing yards: 6.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Purdy just had a two-week span in which he averaged nearly 300 passing yards per game (296.5). However, I believe he falls short of his throwing yards projection on Sunday night, in part due to the run-heavy approach I expect San Francisco to take. Furthermore, the Cowboys apply pressure like no one else, leading the league in pressure rate entering Week 5. When the Cowboys were able to pressure Purdy during last year’s playoff game, the 49ers quarterback averaged 4.6 yards per attempt and had a 49.0 passing rating.
Consider Christian McCaffrey’s total rushing yards: 77.5 (-121). This season, McCaffrey has yet to go under this mark, and he now faces a Cowboys rush defense that is allowing 5.7 yards per carry on the road.
Jake Ferguson has over 3.5 receptions (-129). Ferguson is the Cowboys’ second-most targeted pass catcher, with 4.3 catches per game. He now faces a 49ers defense that allowed Zach Ertz to grab six of his ten targets just a week ago, and Darren Waller had three catches against this defense the week before that.
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