10 key questions that could determine the 2024 national champion

North Carolina was the main mystery going into the 2022–2023 college basketball season. Did the Tar Heels’ performance in the 2022 NCAA tournament portend anything for that season? The response was unequivocally negative, and for the majority of the year, it remained the most popular plot point.

There isn’t just one definitive season-defining question that will determine the conversation surrounding the 2024 national championship on the eve of a new campaign. There are numerous captivating narratives surrounding titles, including those involving Zach Edey, Florida Atlantic making it back to the Final Four, Big East dominance, and Kansas and Duke at the top of the rankings.

Everything is currently on paper, which makes it much simpler to narrow down a team’s potentially fatal flaws to one or two main areas. Of course, that will change over the course of the next six months, but it’s still worthwhile to try to address them now.

For the 2023–24 college basketball season, these are the top 10 questions that will shape the national championship discussion.

Jon Scheyer has all the necessary players to win. Is he going to put everything together and take home a title?
Duke took some time to come together in the first year of the post-Mike Krzyzewski era. During ACC play, the Blue Devils lost two unexpected games: one at Wake Forest and the other at Virginia Tech, falling to NC State by 24 points. However, they ended the regular season on a six-game winning streak and dominated the ACC tournament, giving them the appearance of a possible sleeper for the Final Four. Their defeat to Tennessee in the NCAA tournament’s second round put an immediate stop to that. However, Scheyer has since reloaded, and his squad is expected to win a national championship.

Four starters are back, led by All-American Kyle Filipowski and potential lottery pick Tyrese Proctor. The Blue Devils are also bringing in the No. 2 recruiting class in the country, a group that features three five-star prospects. Most notably, Caleb Foster is generating a considerable amount of preseason hype from NBA scouts. If all the pieces fit — and Filipowski stays healthy — Duke could very well be in the title hunt all season.

Is Zach Edey a shoo-in to repeat as Wooden Award winner, and can Purdue forget about its first-round loss to help the Big Ten end its decades-long national championship drought?

The answer to this complex question is in three parts. Only Ralph Sampson, who won the Wooden Award twice, did so in the early 1980s; however, Edey has the best chance of any winner since then. Naturally, we made a similar statement regarding Oscar Tshiebwe prior to the previous season, but it didn’t quite work out. Edey differs in that he has a very high floor. In the exhibition game against Arkansas last weekend, he didn’t play particularly well, but he still managed to finish with 15 points and 9 boards. It will be difficult to imagine Purdue not being the favorite if he lives up to the hype and Edey is Edey.

As for the Big Ten title drought, there are two prime candidates this season: The Boilermakers and Michigan State. Both are ranked in the top four in most preseason polls. Purdue’s upset loss to Fairleigh Dickinson shouldn’t be much of a factor; this is a team that won 22 of its first 23 games and won the Big Ten tournament title mere days before the historic defeat. The guards have returned and are a year older, and they should have more surrounding Edey with the addition of Lance Jones and a bigger role for Trey Kaufman-Renn.

Meanwhile, Michigan State’s strength is its backcourt, which bodes well for March. The Spartans hit their stride in the NCAA tournament last season and were an overtime loss away from the Elite Eight. Tyson Walker, A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins form one of the elite perimeter groups in the country, so the key will come down to the interior. Can Mady Sissoko find some consistency? Is freshman Xavier Booker ready?

Is Hunter Dickinson the missing piece for Kansas?

Bill Self still has two important players from his 2022 national championship squad: K.J. Adams Jr., who played a supporting role on that winning team, and starting point guard Dajuan Harris Jr. Experienced Big 12 player Kevin McCullar Jr. is the ideal unit leader for this team. However, Dickinson’s arrival is what vaulted the Jayhawks to the top of the preseason rankings. Dubbed the best transfer of the portal era, the Michigan product just finished a season in which he averaged 18.5 points and 9.0 rebounds. Dickinson deserves to be ranked first if he continues to be as good as he was for three years in Ann Arbor.

But Kansas also faces another important question: 3-point endeavors. The Jayhawks, who lost Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick, their two most reliable 3-point shooters, finished the previous season in the middle of the pack in terms of outside shooting. Is Johnny Furphy or Elmarko Jackson able to fill that gap? Nicolas Timberlake, the Towson transfer, will it fall on him?

Can John Calipari win in 2023–24 with a roster that is dominated by freshmen?
With this year’s Kentucky team, Calipari went back to his roots, bringing in the top recruiting class in the country and seemingly setting himself up to start at least two freshmen right away. Aaron Bradshaw, an elite center, is still sidelined due to a foot injury, meaning it would have likely been three. Tre Mitchell and Antonio Reeves bring some experience to the table, but D.J. Wagner’s ability to manage this team will be crucial for Kentucky.

Although Wagner’s early reports from Lexington are encouraging, he will also need to be a distributor and playmaker in addition to a scorer. With Rob Dillingham and Justin Edwards making instant contributions and him being the next-generation point guard Calipari needs, there aren’t many teams with as much raw talent as the Wildcats.

Can the Big East win two games in a row?
Three Big East teams—Creighton (No. 8), UConn (No. 6), and Marquette (No. 5)—are ranked among the top eight in the AP preseason Top 25. There are nearly as many teams in the top half of the rankings in any other conference. In other words, the short answer is yes—a repeat championship is definitely not out of the question when you have three teams that have the makings of a Final Four.

Three starters depart from UConn, but Alex Karaban and Tristen Newton are back in the lineup, Donovan Clingan, a breakout candidate, and freshman Stephon Castle are projected lottery picks, and Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer contributes his shooting and experience. Including All-American Tyler Kolek, Marquette returns four starters from their league-winning campaign from the previous year. And in Trey Alexander, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Baylor Scheierman, and Steven Ashworth, Creighton has as strong a quartet as any in college basketball.

Will Villanova and North Carolina recover from their losses from the previous season?
Being the first preseason #1 team to miss the NCAA tournament, UNC had perhaps the worst season in the history of the sport last year. What is Hubert Davis’s reaction? This team is, on paper, an NCAA tournament squad for the second weekend. Among the top inside-outside tandems in the nation is composed of Armando Bacot and RJ Davis, while high-major transfers Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram. Elliot Cadeau, the point guard, will be crucial.

I think Villanova is appreciative. Carolina diverted all focus from its subpar performance from the previous campaign. With a.500 season record, the Wildcats missed their first NCAA tournament since 2012. However, in addition to veteran returnees Justin Moore and Eric Dixon, Kyle Neptune went out and reloaded with transfers TJ Bamba, Hakim Hart, and Tyler Burton. This group of people is far too talented to skip the dance once more.

Is UCLA this season’s biggest mystery?

Though no one can predict exactly what UCLA will do this season, the Bruins may have the greatest range of results of any collegiate basketball team. Mick Cronin has talent, but not much from the previous season is back. Adem Bona has the potential to be among the nation’s best defensive big men, and Dylan Andrews is a competent point guard. At Utah last season, Lazar Stefanovic averaged over ten points per game. Aday Mara and Berke Buyuktuncel, two international freshmen, could be one-and-done draft selections. Jan Vide is an accomplished player abroad. Sebastian Mack, an American high school recruit, has also created some hype ahead of the season.

There are certainly players on the roster. But there are also questions. Can Bona stay healthy and take the next step? Is Andrews ready to run the show? Freshmen always take time to adapt to the college game — and international freshmen generally take even longer. We might not have answers for several weeks.

How does Houston adapt to its move from the AAC to the Big 12?

Kelvin Sampson and the Houston Cougars are perhaps the most reliable program in college basketball at the moment, with the possible exception being Gonzaga and their yearly 30-win squads. They have advanced to the second weekend of four consecutive NCAA tournaments, including a run to the Final Four in 2021, and have won at least 27 games in five of the previous six seasons. They have also played in one NCAA tournament game in each of the previous five NCAA tournaments. And none of those teams were probably nearly as talented as the one expected this season.

That being said, it will be much harder for the Cougars to win 32 or 33 games again because they are moving up from the AAC to the Big 12. In a new league, a fan base and program used to losing just once a month will need to get used to harsh tests happening twice a week. Houston, though, has enough firepower to start winning right away. Returning are Jamal Shead and J’Wan Roberts, while Damian Dunn and LJ Cryer, two transfers, offer instant offensive punch. Although Terrance Arceneaux or Emanuel Sharp needs to have a breakout season, Sampson has depth, size, experience, and shooting throughout the roster.

Can Florida Atlantic carry over the momentum from last season’s Final Four run?

Compared to human polls conducted prior to the season, computer models do not favor FAU nearly as much. That makes sense, considering that the Owls advanced to the Final Four as a 9-seed in the NCAA tournament and almost (or maybe should have) lost to Memphis in the opening round. In addition to having a target on its back going into the season, Dusty May’s team is also making a move from Conference USA to the AAC.

However, they also return all five starters from a squad that was 31-3 going into the NCAA tournament, despite being a 9-seed. Two of the best players are Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin, both of whom are legitimately 7 feet 1 inches tall thanks to Vladislav Goldin, and there are numerous competent guards surrounding them. Even if FAU doesn’t win 30-plus games again because of a much more difficult schedule, there’s enough talent out of Boca Raton to position them as a second-weekend NCAA tournament team.

Who is this season’s UConn or Purdue?

The AP preseason Top 25 does usually have some predictive value, but last year’s version doesn’t look great in retrospect. The eventual national champions weren’t in the preseason Top 25. Neither were the Boilermakers, who were ranked No. 1 for much of the season and earned a 1-seed. The overall 1-seed in the NCAA tournament, Alabama, was only No. 20 in the preseason poll.

Last year in this column, I targeted Xavier (genius!), Florida and Oklahoma (not as genius) as three teams that could exceed expectations. Let’s see if I can hit on at least one again this season.With an AP ranking of No. 20 going into the season, Baylor is my Final Four underdog this year. The Bears add a ton of talented rookies, and RayJ Dennis, Jayden Nunn, and Ja’Kobe Walter could start three on the perimeter. In particular, Walter appears to be among the nation’s truly exceptional freshmen. Yves Missi is making waves as a possible one-and-done sleeper, and Josh Ojianwuna, Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, and Jalen Bridges are all back. Although it might take some time, Scott Drew has every component needed for a long run.

I prefer Mississippi State and Maryland outside of the Top 25. The Terrapins return three of their experienced anchors, Jamie Kaiser Jr., Donta Scott, and Jahmir Young, and they are adding two freshmen, DeShawn Harris-Smith and Jamie Kaiser Jr., who are creating a lot of buzz. Harris-Smith might have a significant influence right away.

In the meantime, Mississippi State adds high-scoring Marshall transfer Andrew Taylor and returns all five starters from a squad that made it to the NCAA tournament. What’m I overlooking? Although Tolu Smith will miss the first part of the season due to injury, the Bulldogs should be able to compete with any team in the SEC when they are fully healthy.