Riley Beveridge examines the Hawks’ midfield problems in the start of 2024.
We have a problem, HAWTHORN.
Despite the club’s relative youth and ongoing list regeneration, Sam Mitchell managed to assemble a well-rounded midfield group and develop one of the most vibrant and intelligent engine rooms in the League last season.
However, the Hawks’ effectiveness in the midfield has completely deserted them to begin 2024, whether it’s due to the loss of the crucial Will Day to injury or something much bigger and more concerning overall.
Hawthorn managed just five center-bounce clearances in their defeat to Melbourne on Saturday. Not only is that the team’s lowest total since 2008, but it also occurred in a zone where the Hawks dominated the previous campaign. They led the competition in 2023 with an average of 13.3 centre clearances per game.
But not only were the Dees superior 14-5 in centre-bounce clearances last weekend, but Essendon thrashed the Hawks 18-9 in the same statistical category in their opening game the week before.
Hawthorn’s midfield unit from the previous season was able to put together an unusual combination of Day’s outside skill, Jai Newcombe’s growth as an all-around player, Conor Nash’s inside toughness, James Worpel’s comeback, and Ned Reeves’s ruck improvement.
As a result, the Hawks ranked in the top eight for clearances (No. 7) and points from centre clearances (No. 8). They also ranked in the top four for hitouts-to-advantage (No. 1), first possessions (No. 1), hitouts (No. 4), and centre clearances (No. 1).
Champion Data reports that Hawthorn has fallen to dead last in terms of clearances, centre clearances, scores from clearances, and points from center-bounce clearances during the first two weeks of this season.
What is most worrying is that Hawthorn has struggled to defend opposing midfield groups during the first two rounds, in addition to being unable to produce any offensive output from its midfield.
This season, the club has allowed 47 points more per game due to stoppage than the second-worst team in the West Coast, the Eagles, who allow 23 points more per game due to stoppage. This is more than twice as bad as the club’s previous record.
The historically poor midfield numbers don’t end there. Over 55 points have been given up by the Hawks due to stoppage against both the Bombers and the Demons. It’s the first time they’ve done this in back-to-back games since 2002, according to Champion Data.
Over the first two weeks, Hawthorn has elevated Josh Ward and Cam Mackenzie, two other first-round picks, into midfield roles in an attempt to compensate for Day’s absence; however, individual outputs have also been significantly lower than they were the previous season.
According to Champion Data, the win rates for center-bounce clearances by Newcombe, Worpel, and Nash have all significantly decreased from the previous season. Even though they spend less time inside, Ward and Mackenzie are below their 2023 midfield stats.
The individual struggles of Hawthorn’s midfielders extend beyond just their struggles right out of the centre. All three of Newcombe, Nash, and Ward’s numbers have decreased during the first two weeks of the season.
Champion Data’s statistics show that Newcombe has significantly decreased from the previous year in terms of AFL Player Ratings, disposals, contested possessions, clearances, and score involvements. Nash and Ward have also seen decreases in these categories.
Regarding AFL Player Ratings, which is Champion Data’s most reliable indicator of a player’s impact on a game, Newcombe’s numbers have decreased by almost half from 15.2 per game to 7.8 thus far this season. Ward has dropped from 9.3 to 3.1 points per game, while Nash has dropped from 11.4 to 10.9 points.
Surprisingly, considering their difficulties in securing first use from centre bounce, Worpel and Mackenzie’s totals have increased this year. In terms of AFL Player Ratings, clearances, contested possessions, disposals, and score involvements, all have improved from the previous season.
Hawthorn is looking for a workaround to address such midfield issues because the outstanding Day is unlikely to return for another six weeks due to his persistent foot injury.
Such problems will need to be resolved quickly because Geelong and Collingwood—the AFL’s final two premiership teams—are approaching, so it makes sense that Mitchell is looking for solutions.
“Our ability to resolve the center-bounce issue will be our primary concern. It is disastrous to be minus-18 after two rounds. We were really good in that area last year,” Mitchell remarked following Saturday’s loss to Melbourne.
It is evident that a new rule has been implemented. We haven’t adjusted to that as well as we could have, which has made the way teams compete there slightly different. However, we will be heavily focused on that.
“I anticipate that there will be some changes the next time we play on Easter Monday, whether it be in the form of staff, a new system, or both. We now have a few more days to rest and get healthy before taking on a highly productive Cats team.”
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