There are a few areas of interest to focus on if there is a hypothetical whiteboard at IMG’s opulent towers charting the qualifications Super League needs to become the worldwide phenomenon that all rugby league fans hope it can be one day.
Some may be argued to be in place. Most impartial observers would concur that the Super League frequently offers entertainment and that its athletes are of the highest calibre. As part of its 12-year plan to revolutionise the game, IMG’s challenge will be to effectively market those athletes. Beyond that, though, unpredictability may be the one thing a competition needs to attract fresh observers.
Super League hasn’t really had that for a long time, in actuality. The evidence? It has been 20 years since a new team at Old Trafford lifted the grand final trophy. Leeds has won it seven times since they were the last team to win it for the first time in 2004. And if it hasn’t been Leeds, it has been either 10-time champion St. Helens or six-time winners Wigan.
The Bradford Bulls, the only other winners, are no longer in the Super League. The competition provides drama and entertainment, but when it comes down to it, the one game that matters the most is controlled by the same clubs. That seems to be a hindrance to the possibility of captivating a larger audience.
It makes sense to look at other sports since 2004 in order to put that into perspective. While rugby union’s Premiership has produced seven champions in the last 20 years, five of them were new champions, the Premier League has had four first-time winners in the last 20 years (of course, football existed prior to 1992). Since 2004, there have been four first-time champions in Australia’s National Rugby League, with 11 different winners in 20 years.
The Super League has come dangerously close: in that time, five teams have advanced to their first grand final, but each time they have been defeated by Leeds, Wigan, or St Helens. But there may be a welcome change of leadership in the works for individuals who prefer uncertainty. There’s a different vibe at the table as we head into the last six rounds of the season and get ready for Magic Weekend at Elland Road this week.
Indeed, Wigan remain the co-favorite team to win at Old Trafford. However, they are not first; Hull KR, who haven’t won a major trophy since 1985 and are hoping to make it to the grand final for the first time, holds that distinction based on point differential. Their coach, Willie Peters, tells the Guardian that “the competition is in a great place that it has clubs like Hull KR now challenging that status quo.”
Peters played for Wigan for a short time in 2000, but his memories of Super League more than 20 years ago are very different from what he sees in the league now. “There was a big gap between the top three or four when I was a player here and the rest.” That has now significantly changed. Seeing the same teams win over and over again gets boring. Gaining success with new teams attracts new supporters to your sport.
Not only do other teams have a strong chance of winning their first grand final in 2024, but also Rovers. Although many anticipate that Wigan, the current league and world champions, will still be present at Old Trafford, their opponent is much less certain. St Helens, who won four straight championships from 2019 to 2022, are currently ranked fourth and don’t exactly seem like a team that can win the grand final.
But Sam Burgess’ Warrington, who trail Hull KR and Wigan by two points, most definitely do. The fifth team, the Catalan Dragons, are a real threat. Salford, who are among the least expensive teams in the Super League, can compete with anyone on their day and genuinely think they can go all the way to Old Trafford, where the match would essentially be played at home.
Would it make a difference if the trophy had the same name again? Or does Super League desperately need a new look for its champions now that it has been 20 years since anyone experienced success for the first time? “We haven’t experienced it in a long time, so we don’t know,” says Rhodri Jones, CEO of RL Commercial.
“You want the best two teams playing at Old Trafford, but a new name on the trophy would provide narrative.” It’s the unpredictable that we’re all really aiming for. Nothing should ever be assumed to be certain. I accept that the cream does not always rise to the top for a variety of reasons, but it would be boring if it did so constantly.
There will be a fierce competition to advance to the grand final. The next Magic Weekend will pit the top eight teams against one another, with Leeds and Leigh being the other two teams in contention. Your typical weekly round, as Peters maintains, is undoubtedly less predictable; the London Broncos, who were not predicted to win a game this season, have defeated the Catalans and come close to defeating Warrington in the last two weeks.
For a variety of reasons, including the fact that more teams are using the entire salary cap, the difference between the top teams and the rest has shrunk. That implies that nothing can truly be ruled in or out for the final six weeks, and there could be a lot riding on Wigan, Hull KR, and Warrington to compete for first place and the League Leaders’ Shield trophy.
But all of this season’s unpredictability will be for naught if it ends in yet another predictable manner and we enter the twenty-first season without a first-time Super League winner. IMG hopes that eight, nine, or all of the teams will be vying for the championship in ten years when its version of the Super League is played. Though we have made progress in that direction, we still have a ways to go.
We won’t really know if the game needs to change until Hull KR, Warrington, Salford, or Catalans win the trophy at Old Trafford in mid-October.
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