A look inside how college basketball’s biggest and brightest brands are trending after non-conference wars.
It’s just different when Kansas travels to a packed Assembly Hall to take on Indiana. The matchup between Kansas and UConn (the last two national champions) was one of the best games of the season so far. It feels special when a young, talented Kentucky team takes on an old, talented North Carolina squad at the CBS Sports Classic. When college basketball’s most prestigious programs face off, there’s an added layer of pressure and unfiltered emotions.
Saturday gave college basketball’s blue blood programs a chance to show off. They certainly seized the moment.
“I’m telling you, (UNC) is a veteran team that came in with one idea: they were going to be physical with us,” Kentucky coach John Calipari said on Saturday after knocking off UNC 87-83 in a barnburner. “That’s what they did. You know what, we held our own. This is a group of young talented basketball players that are still learning. We’re not near where we should be or where we will be, but I’m kind of liking where we are at this stage of the season. But now it’s time to say, okay, let’s go.”
We dove into the intricacies of college basketball’s blue bloods before the season, but we have 10-plus games (including multiple head-to-head wars) of evidence to sort through. How are they trending ahead of conference play getting started (or restarted) for good?
Let’s dive in:
Stock report: Trending up
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 4
Current KenPom rank: No. 3
Even after losing its three best players, UConn is on the inner circle of teams who can legitimately win the national championship. Dan Hurley scheduled like a madman and looks like a savant right now. UConn emerged from a brutal non-conference slate with a sparkling 10-1 record. The lone blemish is a tight road loss to Kansas. Big deal. Wins over Texas, North Carolina and Gonzaga should look ideal on Selection Sunday while the jury is still out on whether the Indiana romp will be an asset or just another dub.
Tristen Newton is playing like an All-American candidate and one of the best point guards in the country, and big man Donovan Clingan is starting to look fully healthy. The 7-foot-2, 280-pound big man eviscerated Gonzaga for 21 points, eight rebounds, three assists, two blocks and one steal. It still makes no sense how it took Cam Spencer five years to find Hurley and vice versa. They are perfect for each other. UConn still hasn’t gotten the Steph Castle breakout game, but the Huskies are humming on both ends thanks to its scheme, depth and connectivity. Challenges await in Big East country, but UConn has shut up the doubters who didn’t believe it could repeat.
Stock report: Trending down
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 26
Current KenPom rank: No. 48
It’s getting late for UCLA early. The Bruins have dealt with some unlucky breaks (forced to play Chaminade at Maui, Berke Buyuktuncel injury) and are in real danger of exiting non-conference play without a resume-boosting victory. UCLA played Marquette, Gonzaga, Villanova and Ohio State tough but close losses won’t make Mick Cronin peachy. Before the season, the looming Maryland tilt looked like a no-doubt, Quad 1 game for UCLA. Now? Not so much. That’s another dash of bad luck.
This is the second-youngest, high-major team in the country. Life without Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell was always going to be rocky at first. The defense has been closer to really good than special. The offense has been even worse than some pessimists may have anticipated. UCLA scored under 1.00 points per possession against Gonzaga, Villanova and Ohio State.
UCLA can still make the Big Dance if it rolls through an iffy Pac-12 and avoids the pitfalls (hello, Oregon State). Cronin’s young group will undoubtedly play better as it coalesces. But the Bruins’ tough non-conference slate was supposed to give UCLA at least one monster victory it could boast about on Selection Sunday. So far, not so good.
Stock report: Trending down
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 13
Current KenPom rank: No. 23
Michigan State has flip-flopped between being overrated in the preseason to maybe being a bit underrated right now. Baylor found out the hard way on Saturday when it got whooped by 24 by the Spartans.
Tom Izzo has boisterously campaigned that his team is good. Like really, really good. It was easy to roll your eyes at those lines after Michigan State’s 4-5 start. It’s a bit harder now. Was Saturday just a perfect bounce-back spot or the beginning of something special?
If Michigan State is going to get its season back on track for good, it has to come with defense. MSU’s ball pressure and sense of urgency showed up in a major way on the defensive end against Baylor. MSU forced the Bears into 21 turnovers and Michigan State’s rough half court offense can be avoided if the Spartans can get out and run. Forcing more turnovers and eating in transition might be the recipe MSU can lean on moving forward.
Michigan State better not have any post-Baylor hangover, or Oakland could make it pay on Monday. The Grizzlies have given Ohio State, Drake and Illinois scares before knocking off Xavier on the road. MSU’s resume can’t afford a second home loss to a (good) mid-major.
Stock report: Holding steady
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 2
Current KenPom rank: No. 11
This was not the roster Bill Self envisioned and this KU squad is far from a perfect team, but it is so well-coached and flat-out relentless. Self, Kevin McCullar, Hunter Dickinson, KJ Adams and Dajuan Harris just refuse to lose. Even when it doesn’t play well, Kansas gives itself a chance to grind out victories. Saturday was a perfect example. The Jayhawks’ defense rose to the occasion in the second half. Oh, and it managed to score on 14 of the last 17 possessions to come from behind and steal a win from the jaws of defeat against Indiana. If Kansas takes care of Yale and Wichita State, it’s going to emerge from a daunting non-conference schedule with wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, Connecticut and Indiana.
Pretty, pretty good. Kansas is as battle-tested and tough as any team in the country.
Stock report: Trending up
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 18
Current KenPom rank: No. 21
Kentucky is a young team that plays like it. The ‘Cats can rise to the occasion against Kansas, Miami and North Carolina but sleepwalk against UNC Wilmington and St. Joe’s.
But this mix has the look of something special. Kentucky’s nine-man rotation is deep, versatile and so fast. Rob Dillingham is a blur and Aaron Bradshaw looked like a gazelle compared to some of UNC’s plodding bigs. Kentucky can play big with some combination of Bradshaw, Tre Mitchell, Adou Thiero or Justin Edwards on the floor against some teams. It can go small with DJ Wagner, Antonio Reeves, Reed Sheppard and Dillingham all getting plenty of tick. This is the scariest Kentucky has looked in years thanks to the loads of shooting and playmaking this roster possesses. Kentucky’s A-game offensively is as good (or better) than any team in the country.
Good thing the daunting SEC schedule won’t provide many opportunities for these ‘Cats to chill.
Stock report: Trending down
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 50
Current KenPom rank: No. 79
Entering the season, Indiana believed it was vastly underrated and had a talent-laden roster that could contend for a Big Ten Championship. Through 10 games, that has not been the case. UConn and Auburn put Indiana in a blender on neutral courts. Indiana was ever so close to notching that much-needed, resume-boosting win over Kansas, but it found a way to lose a game it controlled for 35 minutes.
That’s life … sometimes.
Indiana will have its opportunities in a Big Ten that looks anything but special because the Hoosiers don’t lack dudes. Kel’el Ware and Malik Reneau will have big days. The version of Mackenzie Mgbako that IU got against Kansas has to stick all year, and an aggressive Trey Galloway is the best Trey Galloway. Getting Xavier Johnson back soon won’t hurt, either. But Mike Woodson will enter the thick of Big Ten play next month without a signature non-conference win (unless Louisville gets really good in a hurry).
Stock report: Trending slightly down
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 9
Current KenPom rank: No. 12
Duke is 1-3 in the four games against high-major teams this season. That’s not the expectation for a program that was considered to be No. 1 in the country in the preseason.
To be fair, Duke had a two-point lead with 68 ticks left at home against Arizona, and it had a four-point lead with 2:22 on the road against Georgia Tech without Tyrese Proctor. Win both of those, and it’s a completely different outlook. Duke’s second-half throttling of a good Hofstra program might be a sign that things are about to change. Kyle Filipowski has been brilliant, and Jeremy Roach has been a consistent No. 2 scorer. But Jared McCain and Caleb Foster have been inconsistent at best, and Proctor’s ankle injury has delayed his sophomore breakout.
Wednesday’s war against an irritated Baylor squad will be Duke’s last opportunity to boost its non-conference resume in a significant way. Duke can’t afford to have the Champions Classic win over Michigan State be the lone non-conference win it can hold its hat on. This team can still accomplish all of its goals, but the first six weeks have been a mild disappointment. A win over Baylor would go a long way toward changing that.
Stock report: Holding steady
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 17
Current KenPom rank: No. 20
North Carolina is what it is right now. The Tar Heels can score with anybody in the country. RJ Davis has cemented himself as one of college basketball’s best guards and the spacing around Armando Bacot is way better thanks to the emergence of Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan. Ingram’s mismatch-hunting booty-ball has been a nice wrinkle to UNC’s offense.
But North Carolina’s defense gets carved by any team with a pulse (Arkansas doesn’t count right now, it’s a mess).
- Kentucky points per possession: 1.08
- UConn points per possession: 1.23
- Tennesssee points per possession: 1.21
- Villanova points per possession: 1.09
UNC can have the best offense in the ACC, but will the shoddy defense and lack of high-end athleticism keep it from winning the league? If North Carolina can knock off Oklahoma on Wednesday, it will emerge from non-conference play with three wins it likes (Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee) and three losses that shouldn’t sting (Villanova, UConn, Kentucky). You’ll take it.
This team is very good. Can it be great?
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