The vibes around Iowa football going into the season’s final stretch are lower after last weekend’s loss to Minnesota. Here are some encouraging numbers to track the rest of the way.
Football at Iowa is 6-2 on the year and will soon approach a crucial portion of its schedule.
With four games left on the season, the Hawkeyes are currently on a bye. Prior to their defeat by Minnesota last week, Iowa led the Big Ten West, but the Hawkeyes’ defeat has left them in an intriguing situation.
The four games Iowa has left on the schedule are all winnable, but after that defeat to Minnesota, there is not much margin for error.
Let’s look at seven encouraging numbers for the Hawkeyes’ optimist going into the final four games of the year.
44.4% – ESPN’s FPI gives Iowa a 44.4 percent chance of winning the Big Ten West. That is the best odds of any team in the West, though Wisconsin is the team right behind the Hawkeyes at 43.5 percent. The FPI gives Iowa an 81.2 percent chance of beating Northwestern, a 65.6 percent chance of beating Rutgers, a 73.1 percent chance of beating Illinois, and a 63.7 percent chance of taking down Nebraska.
13th – That is where Iowa ranks in the Big Ten in remaining strength of schedule, according to the FPI. Iowa’s overall strength of schedule on the season is 13th, while the Hawkeyes’ remaining strength of schedule is 64th in the country.
93.1 – According to Pro Football Focus, Iowa’s defense ranks fifth in the country in overall defense. Iowa’s defense has been rock solid this season under the direction of Phil Parker. Only one of Iowa’s remaining four opponents – Illinois – ranks in the top half of the Big Ten in terms of total yards per game, and the Illini are seventh.
130 – That is how many rushing yards Iowa’s offense has averaged in Iowa’s three games against Big Ten West opponents this fall. Three of Iowa’s remaining four opponents are 8th or worst in the Big Ten in rushing defense when it comes to yards per game.
3 – Of Iowa’s four remaining opponents, three of them rank 10th or worst in the Big Ten in terms of sacks allowed. The Hawkeyes have not had super high sack numbers this year, but these matchups could be opportunities for Iowa to get to the quarterback more and put more pressure on the opposing offense. Iowa’s best game in terms of pass rush was the season opener against Utah State, but the last three games for the Hawkeyes have been their best pass-rushing games since the matchup against the Aggies.
95 – Of Iowa’s 20 trips to the redzone this season, the Hawkeyes have scored points on 19 of them. That is good for 95 percent. Iowa has kicked 10 field goals in the redzone, and scored touchdowns in the other nine. All four of Iowa’s remaining opponents are in the bottom half of the Big Ten in terms of red zone attempts allowed on the season. Field position is an important part of the game, and the Hawkeyes need to take advantage of those opportunities when they get into scoring chances.
11 – Leshon Williams has been the feature back for Iowa this fall due to the injuries of Kaleb Johnson and Jaziun Patterson. Williams has 11 carries of 10 yards or more on the season, which ranks 11th in the Big Ten. The other running backs ahead of him are Rutgers’ Kyle Monangai, Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen, Minnesota’s Darius Taylor, Michigan State’s Nate Carter, Michigan’s Blake Corum, Maryland’s Roman Hemby, and Purdue’s Devin Mockobee and Tyrone Tracy Jr.
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