Has anybody else noticed that no lead is safe in the NBA right now? That might not affect the props market much but it is still a thing. Not to mention so frustrating. Cashing out some nights might start making a lot of sense.
Back to the matter at hand, last Friday we split on our four plays. Winning out the biggest payoff definitely made it a nice profit overall though.
P.S. Going forward, I am off Myles Turner’s rebounding props (has anyone ever said that before?).
Tonight we have a pretty full slate of action ahead of Tuesday’s league night off.
NBA Results to date: 11-17, +66.5 Units
Props for Monday, November 6
Jalen Green Over 20.5 Points (+100)
Green scored 10 points in their last game, also against the Sacramento Kings. That level of production is a rarity and he loves to get his shots up. When he scored just 10 in the season opener, he responded with three straight 20+ point games in a row. He is a scorer so even though the team has won a couple in a row he is going to be itching to get his. Also, I saw a pricing error here. To get 20+ as an alt line the payoff is only -140. When you can get a payoff advantage like that you want to take advantage.
Davion Mitchell 2+ steals (+195) alt line
Mitchell is getting extra playing time tonight with De’Aaron Fox out with an injury. That did not manifest any steals in the last game, but I feel good about relying on his sticky fingers against a team that is just middle of the pack in terms of protecting the ball. Don’t get fooled by the fact that Fred VanVleet, his primary cover, is strong with the rock. A lot of his steals come from reading the passing lanes.
Michael Porter Jr. 20+ Points (+140) Alt Line
Porter is one of the best shooters in the NBA. Right now he is on a hot streak, with back-to-back games shooting 50% from deep, posting 24 and 27 points respectively. That would be enough on its own but tonight against New Orleans the Nuggets are without guard Jamal Murray (their second-leading scorer). They are going to need his offense even more. Bombs away tonight.
Cade Cunningham Over 4.5 Rebounds (+125)
Cunningham averaged six boards per game last season but so far this year he has only averaged half of that. His best rebounding games this year have come at home, where the Pistons are tonight, and having Golden State in the building might add a little crackle to the game and boost some numbers. This one is a bit of a law of averages play too. Golden State does not play big, which can only help.
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