After spending five years with the Oakland Athletics as a first-round draught pick in 2014, Matt Chapman, a California native, was traded for four prospects just prior to the 2022 season, a move that was strikingly similar to the trade of Josh Donaldson for two players in 2014. Chapman will make his first appearance as a free agent this offseason. He has played for the Toronto Blue Jays for the past two seasons and will be available for selection again this offseason.
With three Gold Glove and two Platinum Glove Awards under his belt, Chapman is a defense-first player who will be among the top options this winter given the state of the free agent market, which is largely weak at the hot corner because Rafael Devers and Manny Machado are not bound by contract.
Chapman is ready for a rise and might profit from the lesser free-agent class (aside from Shohei Ohtani) should teams try to bid for his services. He has made $25 million over the last two seasons with the Jays.
The Blue Jays’ Offer to Qualify
Although it is quite likely that the Jays would extend the $20.5 million qualifying offer to Chapman, Toronto might choose to let him walk by using
internal options to play third base next season and potentially use the funds elsewhere on the roster.
Though it would be a hazardous move given that the Jays’ window of opportunity to make the playoffs is presently at its narrowest, there are a few individuals on the team who could step up and seize the slot if one becomes open. There is also the question of whether Chapman should take the offer or not, which has its own advantages and disadvantages, depending on whether the Jays make one to him.
He is light years ahead of the best choice or options at third base this offseason, therefore the biggest drawback to taking the deal would be to not take advantage of the current free agent class. If he decides to accept and wait until the following offseason, Alex Bregman—who is eligible to become a free agent—might have to share the spotlight with him. A lot could alter beforehand.
After a wild 2023 season, Chapman would have another season to try to enhance his stats if he accepted the QO.
Chapman was one of the most exciting players to begin the season, winning Player of the Month for April despite registering a.384 average with 15 doubles and five home runs. After five games, the right-handed hitter had 11 hits and, at one time, led the league in doubles hits. He was seeing the ball well.
That peak would not continue, though, as Chapman would struggle to maintain that level of consistency for the remainder of the season. He would end up finishing with the highest average since 2019—.240—and the greatest OPS since May—.755.
With the exception of the truncated 2020 COVID year, his 17 home runs this season were the fewest in his career. Additionally, he had the fourth-highest strikeout percentage among all eligible third basemen this season, at 28.4%, at the plate.
Even though his numbers weren’t always in his favour, Chapman was still hitting the ball hard. He was above the 95th percentile in terms of average exit velocity (93.4 mph), hard hit percentage (56.4%), and barrel percentage (17.1%), indicating that his gameplan still included raw power and the ability to square the ball.
Chapman’s defence suffered a minor decline towards the end, finishing with a.968 fielding % and 12 errors. He also had a middle finger injury in the last few games, which may have hampered both his bat and fielding ability
Chapman recorded a 12 DRS and was in the 87th percentile in Outs Above Average despite his mistakes, which should put him in the running for the Gold Glove Award this season. Teams all over the squad will be searching for his athleticism and capacity to make difficult plays appear simple this winter.
Organisations seeking a third baseman
Reuniting with Chapman through the QO or a long-term deal could be in the works if the Blue Jays lose interest in developing an internal third base option.
According to CEO Mark Shapiro, the Jays are reportedly eager to spend this offseason, and some significant contracts are coming off the books, including Hyun Jin Ryu, Brandon Belt, and Kevin Kiermaier, giving the front office some payroll flexibility.
Chapman expressed his willingness to return in an interview with Ethan Diamandas of Sports Illustrated, saying, “I have a lot of respect for everyone in this organisation and definitely open to coming back. [The #BlueJays] really care about their players, and there’s nothing that they wouldn’t do for you.”
The two New York teams may be interested in him if he decides to go undrafted, though there are some doubts as to whether or not they want to give some of their prospects more playing time.
Although Brett Baty, a former top prospect, struggled tremendously last season (.598 OPS in 101 games), the Yankees used five different players at third base and may give Oswaldo Cabrera or Oswald Peraza more opportunities going forward.
Other teams that could be interested in third base this summer are the Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Francisco Giants.
Chapman and the impending liberation
Seeing how Matt Chapman’s free agency plays out this winter will be interesting. First and foremost will be if the third baseman receives a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays and whether or not he accepts the one-year contract.
Looking at the free agent market, a trip to the free agency this winter may result in a sizable paycheck; however, a “bet on yourself” one-year contract could result in more money should he improve his numbers the following winter, albeit that would be a riskier alternative.
With super agent Scott Boras leading the campaign for his client, the third baseman will be hoping to cash in regardless of the route he takes and how the offseason plays out.
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