Both AFC Wimbledon players and supporters had a difficult Easter weekend as two games that appeared to be winnable finished in less than ideal circumstances.
The Dons’ chances of earning automatic promotion have decreased from minimal to nearly nonexistent as a result of those results, and they will probably now have to make do with the play-offs.
However, following such poor results in the last few weeks, there may be more pain added to the wound that has already opened up when two other promotion hopefuls play in the final two games of the regular season.
Wimbledon’s squad have become ineffective at the wrong time – now Port Vale, Grimsby could punish them
Now on the other side of the Easter weekend, a period of fixtures that never seem to go well for the Dons with years of winless games to look back on, there is a big feeling that this season is going to be a lot of “what ifs” for Dons fans, as the team has managed to get themselves into promising positions so many times over the campaign, only to then let the pressure get to them and capitulate and lose out on points in key games.
And while there are so many small intricacies that could be broken down to why the team has struggled over the past few weeks, it does ultimately boil down to three simple factors. A disjointed defence, a muddled midfield and finally, an attack atrociously out of form.
| AFC Wimbledon combined stats vs Chesterfield and Gillingham | ||
|---|---|---|
| Stat | For AFC Wimbledon | Against AFC Wimbledon |
| Average Possession (%) | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Average xG | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| Total Shots On Target | 4 | 1 |
Starting with the defence, and while disjointed does not quite sum up their ability to defend, it does summarise their contribution to getting the ball up the field and helping out the attackers.
There was a stage in this campaign where, out of the back three, the central defender would help carry the ball into midfield from time to time but primarily defend, then the two outside centre-halves would overlap the wingers in the attack and help create chances. This has now dissipated and the only contribution they all make is playing the ball long, trying to get attackers in behind, only to give the ball back to the opposition.
Which is where the midfielders come into the picture, as their job has now become quite unclear. Earlier in the campaign, in a slightly different system to the one currently being played, their job was to control the middle of the park, help bring the ball out from the back and calmly play it into forward areas where extra runs were being made by spare midfielders.
Now, though, they are rather static and do not add much to the team apart from their numbers on the field. They are often bypassed by the long lumps forward by those behind them in defence, and when the ball is on the floor, they are too quickly surrounded to ultimately do anything with it, generally losing it instead. Equally, when it comes to them breaking up play, while individuals like Alistair Smith and Jake Reeves do a good job of it, teams expertly nullify them and render them nearly useless in many in-game scenarios.
Jake Reeves AFC Wimbledon
And on the subject of nearly useless, the Dons’ powerless attack looks to have finally run out of ideas and creativity, with fans now fearing that all four of their registered strikers, including 17-goal top scorer Matty Stevens, may not score again this season.
In fairness, those behind them do not give them much to feed off of, but when key creators James Tilley and Josh Neufville do offer them chances, they are not taken, despite the quality that Dons fans know these players possess.
James Tilley AFC Wimbledon
And with all these problems now laid out, there now comes the discussion of Port Vale and Grimsby, who could add further pain and heartbreak to this already disappointing end to the season.
Both teams come into these remaining fixtures having put points on the board in most games over the past few weeks, unlike the Dons, and now that the South West London club are firmly chasing, rather than sitting comfortably, all their opposition have to do is make life just as difficult as the likes of Gillingham, Chesterfield and even Harrogate Town have done, and they will more than likely triumph over a Wimbledon side that is pretty much limping over the line at this point
Play-off campaign is Johnnie Jackson and AFC Wimbledon’s silver lining
AFC Wimbledon manager Johnnie Jackson
It is not all doom and gloom, however, as, despite all that has been said so far, the Dons do find themselves in the League Two play-offs, with every fighting chance that they could still achieve their promotion dreams.
One point from their remaining two fixtures will guarantee them a spot in the footballing lottery of the play-offs, and looking at the other sides that they could play against, fans and players alike must fancy Wimbledon’s chances of success.
If things ended as they are now, the Dons would face a semi-final with Notts County, who themselves have been out of sorts for a long while, and having recently beaten them with ease at Plough Lane, there would be a lot of sense behind backing Wimbledon to beat the Magpies over the two legs.
And having had the experience at Wembley in more recent years, albeit with a completely different squad, it is not as though an appearance there would be anything historic or special for the club. Instead, it would, and perhaps should, be treated just like any other fixtures that the club have played this season, just with the hope that the result in the game goes the way of the Dons, especially if the game were to be against any of the teams above them who seem to be dropping points left, right and centre.
So while an automatic promotion spot is now pretty much impossible to get, unless yet another topsy-turvy weekend of fixtures throws up something silly, there must be motivation found in the anguish and pain to finish the season off in the strongest fashion possible.
Otherwise, Wimbledon face the prospect of going from a side likely to be going on a League One tour next season, to a side making their way around the grounds in the fourth tier for a fourth straight season.
